Monday, March 26, 2007
February’s Hot Market Fading?
Within the past two weeks there have been news reports of increased pending sales in February. One national market article identified it as the biggest rise in pending sales in 3 years. There were plenty of trumpets about the Seattle market too. In Kitsap County we reported that year-to-date pending sales were up 1% from a year ago, and that we would wait and see whether the spurt in February would translate into a longer term trend. In the same period there has been downbeat information reported about the sub-prime mortgage market, which will probably translate into tougher underwriting standards for mortgages and reduce the field of buyers somewhat. Also there was a sharp downturn in the stock market, though it has recovered recently to some extent.
We’re here to answer how the Kitsap real estate market is fairing in all this turmoil.
Here are the current statistics for Subject To Inspection (STI) and Active Listings (comparing the number in mid March to the number in mid February). You'll recall that STI represents the number of newly signed around deals in the first 2 weeks of the month. STI is the best gauge for telling us in near real time how many sales are occurring. Some of these deals will fall apart before they become pending sales.
| Area | STI 3/15 | STI 2/15 | Active Listings 3/15 | Active Listings 2/15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Kitsap W. of HWY 3 | 9 | 10 | 128 | 147 |
| S. Kitsap E. of HWY 3 | 5 | 6 | 92 | 102 |
| Port Orchard | 6 | 20 | 134 | 138 |
| Retsil/Manchester | 1 | 10 | 88 | 90 |
| Seabeck/Holly | 1 | 2 | 82 | 73 |
| Chico | 1 | 3 | 23 | 26 |
| Silverdale | 9 | 11 | 77 | 82 |
| W. Bremerton | 6 | 9 | 145 | 149 |
| E. Bremerton | 6 | 8 | 67 | 73 |
| E. Central Kitsap | 5 | 9 | 81 | 81 |
| Hansville | 0 | 3 | 19 | 20 |
| Kingston | 2 | 3 | 52 | 57 |
| Port Gamble | 0 | 0 | 17 | 16 |
| Lofall | 1 | 1 | 21 | 21 |
| Finn Hill | 4 | 2 | 43 | 47 |
| Poulsbo | 4 | 6 | 72 | 69 |
| Suquamish | 2 | 8 | 31 | 24 |
| Indianola | 0 | 2 | 27 | 25 |
| Bainbridge | 6 | 12 | 142 | 148 |
| Totals | 66 | 125 | 1341 | 1388 |
‘STI’ deals have fallen by 59 compared to February. That's a 47% drop in sales activity. Last month they were up 51, so March has actually been slower than January so far! Active listings fell by 47 units after rising in January and February. This probably reflects the hot pace of February, but won't continue with the current level of sales activity. The ratio of sales to number of active listings fell from 9% last month to 5%. Bremerton, Silverdale, and some areas of South Kitsap remained fairly active, while activity in North Kitsap and Bainbridge declined more. STI's were up in only one area – Finn Hill rose from 2 to 4. While there is nothing to prevent an end of month flurry from bringing back February's level of activity, we currently see last month as a spike on the chart.
March’s APR is 6.353% on a 30-Year and 6.126% on a 15-Year, both Conforming. February’s APR was 6.353% on a 30-Year and 6.252% on a 15-Year, both Conforming. The 15 year rate is down slightly and the 30 rate is holding steady. To check the daily rate you can contact your lender or preview web sites such as this one - http://www.wellsfargo.com/mortgage/rates.
We have two big changes in our web site to announce. The new Map Search feature lets you scan the Kitsap map and double click to zoom in to see more listings. You can filter the property type above the map and can see full details about any listing by clicking on it. Also we have a new search for Sold Properties. If you are skillful you can select comparable properties to do your own market analysis. There are links to both at http://www.bprowse.com.
Friday, March 09, 2007
Kitsap Real Estate Market Report - February 2007
The slow turnover of inventory continues but may be improving. Both list and sale prices are remaining steady. A surprising rise in the number pending sales gives further assurance that the market is stable. The biggest gains in pending sales have occurred in markets that declined the most last year.
Residential Highlights
Kitsap County residential inventory in February (1632 listings) was up 3% from January. The February inventory was 40% higher than last year, down from 45% higher last month. The number of year to date pending sales was up 1% compared to a year ago - this is a surprise and deserves more comment below. Bainbridge Island pending sales are up 34% from a year ago (they were up 12% last month). The number of YTD closed sales is down by 12% compared to a year ago - down from 8% last month. Bainbridge Island closed sales were down 11% from a year ago after being up 38% last month. When the numbers are small there can be large fluctuations in the data.
Prices are stable...
The median sales price of $281,703 increased about half a percent from the previous month. This is up 9% from a year ago.
Seller expectations...
The median list price for the year remained essentially steady at $350,000, about the same as last month. This is about 8% higher than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 7.8 months, up from 7.4 months in January. A year ago this number was 4.7 months, already reflecting a market slowdown from its 2005 levels. Today a seller has a 13% chance of selling his/her home in a given month. Competitive pricing is essential, and most offers we see presented are negotiating on price.
Does the pending sales data mean that prospects are improving for sellers? We recommend caution - the surge in February may be partially because bad weather depressed sales in January. Also last year’s February pending sales were off 10% from a year before, so unlike in previous months we are now starting to compare the current market with past sales that were already slumping. It appears that the inventory turnover is getting better. The coming months will show whether this trend continues.
The distribution of pending sales increases varied widely in the County. Areas where sales were depressed the most last year (Bainbridge, Poulsbo) appear to have benefitted most from the spurt in sales. Here is a snapshot:
Bainbridge Island +35%
Poulsbo +11%
Bremerton 0%
Kingston -7%
Silverdale +6%
Port Orchard +9%
Olalla -14%
Sunday, March 04, 2007
Rare Vacant Land Opportunity
by Jim Valentine, Buyer Agent for Prowse and Company
jim@bprowse.com, 360-779-2888, ext. 104, 888-842-0117 (toll free)
A new development in Hansville (9 miles, 13 driving minutes, from the Kingston Albertsons) just came on the market and is offering some very nice building lots with prices starting at $158,000 and topping out at $178,000. It may sound like a lot, but if you look at all the site development that has already been done, it may be a very good deal if the land fits your criteria.
Here are a few items of interest concerning these lots:
• All lots come with an approved septic design.
• All lots have been surveyed and corners have been marked.
• Kitsap County water is already in the street.
• Power has been placed in the street (no power lines for trees to fall on during a storm).
• Olympic Mountain and Puget Sound views are available.
• Average lot size is .75 acres (smallest - .53 acres, largest – 1.54 acres).
• 120 acres of open space is connected to an extensive county trail system.
• Buck Lake and Point No Point are very near by.
It doesn’t get much better or easier when it comes to finding buildable vacant land in Kitsap County. This is a rare opportunity for people looking to build a dream home, invest or build on spec.
For more information, including septic designs or CC&R’s, please contact Prowse & Company at 360-779-2888, we are representing buyers interested in this great new opportunity.
Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS
