Monday, May 28, 2007
Download the May 2007 Waterfront Update
Download the May Waterfront Update
Prowse and Company News - May 2007
Monday, May 21, 2007
Mid May Kitsap Real Estate Outlook
The steady beat of negative news about the housing market continues, no longer making headlines as the business community shrugs off a possible greater impact and the stock market continues to rise. The National Association of Realtors revised downward its projection for the sales of existing homes, now expecting sales this year to decline 2.9% nationally compared to last year. This downward revision (from a minus 2.2% projected earlier) is the result of tighter lending standards as a result of failures in the subprime mortgage market. Existing home sales dropped 8.5% last year. How are sales in the Kitsap market comparing?
The pace of existing home sales remains very slow. In Kitsap County the average days on the market for sold listings is 98 days, up from 67 days a year ago. Poulsbo is the worst case for days on the market, where year-to-date days on the market for closed sales is now 160 days, up from 68 days a year ago. No other area in Kitsap County has an average days on the market above 125 days.
Here are the current statistics for Subject To Inspection (STI) and Active Listings (comparing the number in mid May to the number in mid April). You'll recall that STI represents a newly signed around contract prior to the buyer and seller agreeing on the home inspection. Below we show the number of STI contracts signed around in the first 2 weeks of the month. The number of STI contracts is the best gauge for telling us in near real time how many sales are occurring. Some of these sales will fall apart before they become pending sales.
| Area | STI 5/15 | STI 4/15 | Active Listings 5/15 | Active Listings 4/15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Kitsap W. of HWY 3 | 3 | 6 | 150 | 152 |
| S. Kitsap E. of HWY 3 | 7 | 7 | 141 | 123 |
| Port Orchard | 10 | 9 | 174 | 156 |
| Retsil/Manchester | 5 | 4 | 109 | 101 |
| Seabeck/Holly | 1 | 2 | 110 | 97 |
| Chico | 4 | 1 | 30 | 28 |
| Silverdale | 6 | 5 | 106 | 94 |
| W. Bremerton | 13 | 14 | 193 | 174 |
| E. Bremerton | 7 | 5 | 100 | 85 |
| E. Central Kitsap | 12 | 6 | 109 | 101 |
| Hansville | 1 | 2 | 38 | 28 |
| Kingston | 4 | 2 | 68 | 67 |
| Port Gamble | 0 | 1 | 20 | 17 |
| Lofall | 0 | 0 | 33 | 24 |
| Finn Hill | 1 | 2 | 59 | 52 |
| Poulsbo | 10 | 9 | 102 | 90 |
| Suquamish | 0 | 4 | 38 | 30 |
| Indianola | 1 | 3 | 31 | 26 |
| Bainbridge | 16 | 6 | 191 | 176 |
| Totals | 101 | 88 | 1802 | 1621 |
‘STI’ deals in May increased by 15% compared to the first two weeks in April - this after April's STI deals increased 33% from March. Though the percentage increases sound imprssive, the 101 STI transactions in the first 2 weeks of May are 19% fewer than the 125 we reported for the same period in February. The residential inventory has continued to grow significantly, up 11% since last month and up 34% over the past 2 months. Despite a robust percentage increase in the number of sales, the ratio of sales to number of active listings only increased from 5.4% to 5.6%. This helps to clarify the sales statistics - a 53% rise in STI transactions the past 2 months has only raised the chance an active listing will receive a successful offer from 5% to 5.6%. Sales on Bainbridge Island and in E Central Kitsap rose the most for the first 2 weeks in April.
Another missing factor is that in some areas there are a significant number of new constuction presale contracts that are bypassing active status and initially recording as pending. In Poulsbo this month there have been 21 transactions placed in pending status - 8 regular sales that passed through STI status and 13 more new construction presales that never appeared in the active listing inventory. 16 of the 21 pending sales are new construction - a significant number for sellers of older homes.
May’s APR is 6.606% on a 30-Year and 6.378% on a 15-Year, both Conforming. April’s APR was 6.480% on a 30-Year and 6.252% on a 15-Year, both Conforming. Both the 15 year rate and the 30 rate are up a bit for the second month in a row. The rise in interest rates is only part of the story - underwriting standards for loan qualification are also being tightened. To check the daily rate you can contact your lender or preview web sites such as this one - http://www.wellsfargo.com/mortgage/rates.
Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS
