Tuesday, June 26, 2007
Kitsap Real Estate May Market Breakdown by Area
The Kitsap County real estate market has some significant variation between regions. The hot market in Bremerton has cooled and inventory has risen dramatically, while the Poulsbo inventory is actually lower now than last year and the market looks pretty good; however, facts can be deceiving. Silverdale real estate prices have dropped 2.8% from a year ago, which has actually helped sales revive. Read on for more details.
Bainbridge Island Real Estate
Homes on Bainbridge Island were selling for a median price of about $660,000 at the end of May, up about 11% from a year ago but about the same as at the beginning of 2007. Kitsap County median prices were up 9% over the past year. The YTD number of closed sales is up 11% from a year ago, and the YTD number of pending sales is up 14%. These are comparatively good numbers - the number of closed sales is down 10% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings (242) is up 46% from a year ago, and the inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 6.9 months. Despite the relative improvement in sales this year, this continues to be a buyers market.
Bremerton Real Estate
Homes in Bremerton were selling for a median price of about $209,000 at the end of May, up about 9% from a year ago. Kitsap County median prices were up 9% over the past year. The YTD number of closed sales is down 23% from a year ago, and the YTD number of pending sales is down 19%. One must recall that the Bremerton real estate market was much better than most other parts of the County last year - essentially it had the same numbers as in 2005 with 10% appreciation - so the decline in Bremerton still represents a healthier market than in some other parts of the County. The number of active listings (230) is up 63% from a year ago, and the inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 7.4 months. Bremerton is a buyers market.
North Kitsap Real Estate
Using the example of Kingston - the largest housing market in North Kitsap - homes were selling for a median price of about $380,000 at the end of May, up about 15% from a year ago. Kitsap County median prices were up 9% over the past year. The YTD number of closed sales is up 19% from a year ago, and the YTD number of pending sales is up 7%. These are comparatively good numbers - the number of closed sales is down 10% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings (83) is up 20% from a year ago, and the inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 11.9 months - highest in our group - though with relatively small numbers of listings and sales, large swings in the data will be possible.
Poulsbo Real Estate
Homes in Poulsbo were selling for a median price of about $356,500 at the end of May, up about 10% from a year ago. Kitsap County median prices were up 9% over the past year. While Poulsbo had the 2nd highest median sales price in the County at the start of 2007, other areas have now moved ahead, and the relatively lower prices in Poulsbo have resulted in more sales. The number of closed sales YTD has increased 36% compared to last year, and the number of YTD pending sales has increased 58%, though a large portion of that increase is from presales of one moderately priced new construction development - homes that never appreared as active listings. The listing inventory has fallen by 3% compared to a year ago - everywhere else inventory is rising. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 6 months, better than most other areas.
Silverdale Real Estate
Homes in Silverdale were selling for a median price of about $302,500 at the end of May, down 2.8% from a year ago. Most other areas still show an increase in sales price from the previous year (up 9% overall), so the market pressure has been taking more of a toll in Silverdale. The number of YTD closed sales was 15% higher than a year ago, compared to a drop in closed sales of 10% for the County as a whole. The number of pending sales YTD is up 6% compared to a year ago. The number of active listings (124) is up 39% compared to a year ago, and and the inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 4.96 months, better than most other parts of the County.
Thursday, June 21, 2007
Mid June Kitsap Real Estate Outlook
In the past month interest rates have risen significantly on home loans with the APR for typical 30 year fixed mortgages now nearing 7%. This was the largest rise in rates in over 4 years. A recent report on CNN listed the Seattle market as one of the nation’s most overpriced. Nationally the rate of new home construction is now lower than it was in 2000, down almost 36% from the peak in January 2006. Most national reports are predicting that the market slump will not end soon, and this combination of rising rates and excess inventory is expected to continue to put downward pressure on home prices. How is the market in Kitsap County looking at mid month?
The pace of existing home sales remains slow, though we are now seeing more activity on properties that have reduced in price or come on the market aggressively priced to sell. In Kitsap County the average days on the market for sold listings is 96 days, up from 66 days a year ago. Poulsbo is the worst case for days on the market, where year-to-date days on the market for closed sales is now 152 days, up from 59 days a year ago. No other area in Kitsap County has an average days on the market above 115 days.
Here are the current statistics for Subject To Inspection (STI) and Active Listings (comparing the number in mid June to the number in mid May). You'll recall that STI represents a newly signed around contract prior to the buyer and seller agreeing on the home inspection. Below we show the number of STI contracts signed around in the first 2 weeks of the month. The number of STI contracts is the best gauge for telling us in near real time how many sales are occurring. Some of these sales will fall apart before they become pending sales.
| Area | STI 6/15 | STI 5/15 | Active Listings 6/15 | Active Listings 5/15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Kitsap W. of HWY 3 | 8 | 3 | 180 | 150 |
| S. Kitsap E. of HWY 3 | 11 | 7 | 164 | 141 |
| Port Orchard | 7 | 10 | 179 | 174 |
| Retsil/Manchester | 5 | 5 | 130 | 109 |
| Seabeck/Holly | 2 | 1 | 123 | 110 |
| Chico | 1 | 4 | 36 | 30 |
| Silverdale | 7 | 6 | 115 | 106 |
| W. Bremerton | 8 | 13 | 210 | 193 |
| E. Bremerton | 4 | 7 | 109 | 100 |
| E. Central Kitsap | 3 | 12 | 143 | 109 |
| Hansville | 4 | 1 | 37 | 38 |
| Kingston | 3 | 4 | 81 | 68 |
| Port Gamble | 1 | 0 | 19 | 20 |
| Lofall | 0 | 0 | 38 | 33 |
| Finn Hill | 4 | 1 | 68 | 59 |
| Poulsbo | 4 | 10 | 98 | 102 |
| Suquamish | 1 | 0 | 43 | 38 |
| Indianola | 4 | 1 | 36 | 31 |
| Bainbridge | 17 | 16 | 201 | 191 |
| Totals | 94 | 101 | 2010 | 1802 |
‘STI’ deals in June dropped by 7% compared to the first two weeks in May - this a reversal of the last 2 months rise. The residential inventory has continued to grow significantly, up 12% since last month and up 50% since mid March. The ratio of sales to number of active listings decreased from 5.6% to 4.7%. Sales on Bainbridge Island remained strong and in sales in South Kitsap rose the most for the first 2 weeks in June.
Another missing factor is that in some areas there are a significant number of new construction presale contracts that are bypassing active status and initially recording as pending. In Poulsbo this month there have been 12 (down from 21 last month) transactions placed in pending status - 8 regular sales that passed through STI status (same as last month) and 4 more new construction presales that never appeared in the active listing inventory. 6 of the 12 pending sales are new construction, and 8 of 12 were built since 2004, showing a strong buyer preference for newer homes where available. Closed sales countywide for this year-to-date 1475 lag last year (1721) by 14% and lag 2005 (1885) by 22%.
Properties are selling, but as you can see it is very competitive with the huge increase in inventory and significant decline in closed sales. Properties priced for the market in January are often no longer competitive. Consider that this month in Poulsbo there have been only 4 pending sales of older homes. Many sellers are choosing to reduce price to remain competitive, and we are also seeing some homes come on the market at prices significantly below other properties already listed in the same neighborhoods, reflecting that buyers are continuing to be more selective and only the best valued homes are being chosen. The rise in interest rates this month will further restrict the pool of buyers.
June’s APR is 6.987% on a 30-Year and 6.757% on a 15-Year, both Conforming. May’s APR was 6.606% on a 30-Year and 6.378% on a 15-Year, both Conforming. Both the 15 year rate and the 30 rate are up more than a quarter point. To check the daily rate you can contact your lender or preview web sites such as this one - http://www.wellsfargo.com/mortgage/rates.
Thursday, June 14, 2007
Download the June 2007 Waterfront Update
Download the June Waterfront Update
Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS
