Saturday, January 26, 2008
Kitsap Real Estate Local Markets in December
There is now so much economic news that there isn’t much new to report about the national real estate market. The news, replete with headlines warning of a 30% drop in home prices, fears of a deep recession, news of a rogue trader losing $7 billion from a French bank, etc., certainly are intended to leave the public teetering on the edge. Perhaps something reassuring? The Businomics Blog tells how most stock markets are down just a smidgen in comparison with how much they have risen over the past several years, how the country’s largest banks were actually profitable in 2007, how the actual fluctuations in our economy vary only a small amount with large fluctuations in the stock market. There are mixed reviews for the proposed $150 billion stimulus package. Some economists opine that it comes too soon and that the proposed raising of the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac maximum loan limits, which would be raised proportionately above the current maximum of $417,000 in some areas, might expose these agencies to additional risk without tightening the regulations that led to accounting problems for both agencies in the past several years. It appears that the loan limit in the Seattle area might increase to just under $500,000 if the legislation is passed as proposed. Congress is hoping to have legislation clear both the House and Senate by mid February.
We have published this article monthly for most of the past year to explore some of the significant variations in the Kitsap Real Estate market. December’s inventory declined further from November by 12.6%. At year end it’s not unusual for inventory to be down 15% or more from the peak. We are expecting inventory to start rising again in January. Median prices fell about half a percent in December, but remain up 7% compared to a year ago. We try to breakout the new construction sales from the resale market in Poulsbo to give a more accurate presentation of conditions there. Below are graphs of the month-to-month market fluctuations of total listings, number of closed sales, and median sales price for each areas. The descriptive comments for each area below cite the more consistent year-to-date numbers.
Total listings on the market by month for various Kitsap communities
Number of Closed Sales each month for various Kitsap communities
Variations in Median Price Month by Month for Closed Sales in various Kitsap communities
Bainbridge Island Real Estate
Residential homes on Bainbridge Island were selling for a median price of about $680,000 at the end of December, up about 3% from a year ago. The December median price for closed sales was $605,000, indicating that prices might be beginning to fall. Kitsap County median prices were up about 6% over the past year. The YTD number of Bainbridge closed sales is down 5% from a year ago, and the YTD number of pending sales is down 4%. The Bainbridge market activity has been considerably slower in the 4th quarter after being up for most of the year compared to 2006. The number of closed sales is down 18% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings on Bainbridge (182) is up 8% from a year ago. The Bainbridge listing inventory has fallen considerable as homeowners took their homes off the market for the holidays. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 12 months. Bainbridge Island is a strong buyers market.
Bremerton Real Estate
Homes in Bremerton were selling for a YTD median price of about $211,475 at the end of December, up about 6% from a year ago. The December median price for closed sales was $170,750, indicating that prices may be coming down. Kitsap County median prices were up 6% over the past year. The YTD number of closed sales is down 26% from a year ago (compared to a Countywide drop of 18%), and the YTD number of pending sales is down 24%. The number of active listings (260) is up 47% from a year ago. The listing inventory is falling now as homeowners take their properties off the market for the Holidays. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 8.1 months. Bremerton is a buyers market.
North Kitsap Real Estate
Using the example of Kingston - the largest housing market in North Kitsap - homes were selling for a median price of about $357,250 at the end of December, up about 7% from a year ago. Kingston prices fluctuate more than some of the other markets because of the lower listing and sales volume. Kitsap County median prices were up 6% over the past year. The YTD number of closed sales is down 18% from a year ago, and the YTD number of pending sales is down 11%. The number of closed sales is down 18% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings in Kingston (75) is up 32% from a year ago, and the inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 25 months.
Poulsbo Real Estate
Homes in Poulsbo were selling for a median price of about $355,000 at the end of December, up about 1.4% from a year ago. Kitsap County median prices were up 6% over the past year. The number of closed sales YTD has increased 13% compared to last year, and the number of YTD pending sales has increased 31%, though a large portion of that increase is from presales of one moderately priced new construction development - homes that never appeared as active listings. The Poulsbo listing inventory (118) has risen by 17% compared to a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 6.6 months. Calculating inventory turnover in this manner is artificially low since a number of the new construction homes closing did not show as active listings. Of 45 current pending sales, 40 are new construction. Of 63 non-new construction active listings in Poulsbo, only 7 closed last month, making the inventory turnover rate 9 months.
Silverdale Real Estate
Homes in Silverdale were selling for a median price of about $318,500 at the end of December, up about 1% from a year ago. The number of YTD closed sales was down 3.7% from a year ago, compared to a drop in closed sales of 18% for the County as a whole. The number of pending sales YTD is up 1.6% from a year ago. The number of active listings in Silverdale (101) is about the same as a year ago. This inventory is now falling as homeowners have taken their properties off the market for the Holidays. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 6 months.
Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS
