Kitsap Real Estate Local Markets in February 2008
The daily news has calmed somewhat since the fall of Bear Stearns. JP Morgan Chase has agreed to raise their bid for the failed investment bank to $10 per share. A recent report in the Wall St Journal revealed that thousands of new condominiums are about to come on the market even though current sales are weak and there is already a 10 month supply of inventory. These excesses are mostly in the Florida and elsewhere in the South, California, and Arizona. We have had a hint of the problem in Kitsap County with the auction sale planned on April 20th for The 400 condominium units in Bremerton. Bainbridge Island has about 117 condominium properties currently listed and had 7 sales in February - an inventory turnover rate of 17 months. New construction developers in Kitsap County have been offering generous bonus and financing programs to move their inventories, and one developer, Central Highlands, Inc at Poulsbo Place 2, has discussed a program of buyer price protection. Details of that program were listed but not yet posted on their web site.
Home resales rose nationally for the first time in 7 months as February’s annualized rate of 5.03 million was up 2.9% from January. In Kitsap County the same story was true. February’s closed sales increased 12% from January. Nationally sales were down 24% from February 2007, while in Kitsap County sales were down 19% from a year ago. The median closed sale price was down 8.2% nationally from a year ago, while in Kitsap County February closed sale prices were down 14%. This drop in sales price coupled with 30 year fixed mortgage rates now back below 6% (after spiking up almost half a percent last month) has caused a large improvement in affordability. Homes for qualified conventional buyers in Kitsap are back to early 2004 levels of affordability. Prices will need to fall further for the affordability to improve to historically more stable levels.
Some articles have reported that a major factor in falling prices has been the resale of foreclosed properties. There is no easy way to assemble these statistics for our area, but using typical keywords and seller names, we found about 100 listed properties in some stage of short sale, foreclosure, or bank owned resale - about 3.5% of our market. We found about 5% of the closed sales were from this group of distressed sales.
We have published this article monthly for most of the past year to explore some of the significant variations in the Kitsap Real Estate market. February’s inventory of homes for sale rose by 5% from January. Median year to date closed sale prices fell 5% in February compared to January and were down 6% percent compared to a year ago. We try to breakout the new construction sales from the resale market in Poulsbo to give a more accurate presentation of conditions there. Below are graphs of the month-to-month market fluctuations of total listings, number of closed sales, and median sales price for each areas. The descriptive comments for each area below cite the more consistent year-to-date numbers.
Total listings on the market by month for various Kitsap communities
Number of Closed Sales each month for various Kitsap communities
Variations in Median Price Month by Month for Closed Sales in various Kitsap communities
Bainbridge Island Real Estate
Residential homes on Bainbridge Island were selling for a median price of about $617,000 at the end of February, a drop of 7% from a year ago. The February median price for closed sales was 9.5% higher than last month’s median price of $563,500. Kitsap County median prices have fallen 6% over the past year. The YTD number of Bainbridge closed sales is down 52% from a year ago, and the YTD number of pending sales is down 60%. No doubt the Bainbridge market is suffering from the current lending environment, which prices 30 year fixed rate jumbo loans higher than conforming 30 year fixed rate loans. The number of closed sales is down 19% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings on Bainbridge (236) is up 37% from a year ago. The Bainbridge listing inventory has also risen 9% since January. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 11.8 months. Bainbridge Island is a strong buyers market.
Bremerton Real Estate
Statistics we refer to are for that part of Bremerton encompassing the downtown core and west to Kitsap Lake. The market for other parts of Bremerton and its suburbs should have approximately similar trends. Homes in Bremerton were selling for a YTD median price of about $180,000 at the end of February, about 13% lower than a year ago. The February median price for closed sales was about the same as the median for last month. Kitsap County median prices have fallen 6% over the past year. The YTD number of closed sales is down 7% from a year ago (compared to a Countywide drop of 19%), and the YTD number of pending sales is down 37% from last year. The number of active listings (242) is up 49% from a year ago. The listing inventory has 8.5% since January. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 5.8 months. Much better than average!
North Kitsap Real Estate
Using the example of Kingston - the largest housing market in North Kitsap - homes were selling for a median price of about $355,000 at the end of February, down about 3% from a year ago and down about 9.6% from last month. Kingston prices fluctuate more than some of the other markets because of the lower listing and sales volume. Kitsap County median prices have fallen 6% over the past year. The YTD number of closed sales is down 40% from a year ago, and the YTD number of pending sales is down 38%. The number of closed sales is down 19% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings in Kingston (84) is up 33% from a year ago and up 11 percent since last month. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 28 months - only 3 sales closed in Kingston last month.
Poulsbo Real Estate
Statistics we refer to are for that part of Poulsbo encompassing the downtown core, from the head of Liberty Bay southeast to Ne-Si-Ka Bay, including parts north to Sawdust Hill Rd. The market for other parts of Poulsbo and its suburbs should have approximately similar trends. Homes in Poulsbo were selling for a median price of about $343,513 at the end of February, down about 4% from a year ago. Kitsap County median prices have fallen 6% over the past year. The number of closed sales YTD has risen 23% compared to last year, and the number of YTD pending sales has increased 26%. This compares to a drop of 19% since a year ago for Kitsap County as a whole. A large portion of the currently pending sales is from presales at one moderately priced new construction development - homes that never appeared as active listings. The Poulsbo listing inventory (158) has risen by 52% compared to a year ago and is 8% higher than it was at the end of January. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 7.5 months. Calculating inventory turnover in this manner is artificially low since a number of the new construction homes closing did not show as active listings. Of 43 current pending sales, 34 are new construction. Using only the 81 non-new construction active listings in Poulsbo and the 10 non new construction sales closed last month, the inventory turnover would be 8.1 months.
Silverdale Real Estate
Homes in Silverdale were selling for a median price of about $387,500 at the end of February, up about 29% from a year ago. This rise in prices is not across the board, but instead reflects an increased number of sales in higher price ranges. Kitsap County median prices have fallen 6% over the past year. The number of YTD closed sales was down 33% from a year ago, compared to a drop in closed sales of 19% for the County as a whole. The number of pending sales YTD is down 32% from a year ago. The number of active listings in Silverdale (118) is 19% higher than a year ago, and it’s also 17% higher than it was at the end of January. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 9.8 months.
Next entry: Kitsap Real Estate Market Report - March 2008
Previous entry: Download the March 2008 Waterfront Update
