Monday, March 26, 2007
February’s Hot Market Fading?
Within the past two weeks there have been news reports of increased pending sales in February. One national market article identified it as the biggest rise in pending sales in 3 years. There were plenty of trumpets about the Seattle market too. In Kitsap County we reported that year-to-date pending sales were up 1% from a year ago, and that we would wait and see whether the spurt in February would translate into a longer term trend. In the same period there has been downbeat information reported about the sub-prime mortgage market, which will probably translate into tougher underwriting standards for mortgages and reduce the field of buyers somewhat. Also there was a sharp downturn in the stock market, though it has recovered recently to some extent.
We’re here to answer how the Kitsap real estate market is fairing in all this turmoil.
Here are the current statistics for Subject To Inspection (STI) and Active Listings (comparing the number in mid March to the number in mid February). You'll recall that STI represents the number of newly signed around deals in the first 2 weeks of the month. STI is the best gauge for telling us in near real time how many sales are occurring. Some of these deals will fall apart before they become pending sales.
| Area | STI 3/15 | STI 2/15 | Active Listings 3/15 | Active Listings 2/15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Kitsap W. of HWY 3 | 9 | 10 | 128 | 147 |
| S. Kitsap E. of HWY 3 | 5 | 6 | 92 | 102 |
| Port Orchard | 6 | 20 | 134 | 138 |
| Retsil/Manchester | 1 | 10 | 88 | 90 |
| Seabeck/Holly | 1 | 2 | 82 | 73 |
| Chico | 1 | 3 | 23 | 26 |
| Silverdale | 9 | 11 | 77 | 82 |
| W. Bremerton | 6 | 9 | 145 | 149 |
| E. Bremerton | 6 | 8 | 67 | 73 |
| E. Central Kitsap | 5 | 9 | 81 | 81 |
| Hansville | 0 | 3 | 19 | 20 |
| Kingston | 2 | 3 | 52 | 57 |
| Port Gamble | 0 | 0 | 17 | 16 |
| Lofall | 1 | 1 | 21 | 21 |
| Finn Hill | 4 | 2 | 43 | 47 |
| Poulsbo | 4 | 6 | 72 | 69 |
| Suquamish | 2 | 8 | 31 | 24 |
| Indianola | 0 | 2 | 27 | 25 |
| Bainbridge | 6 | 12 | 142 | 148 |
| Totals | 66 | 125 | 1341 | 1388 |
‘STI’ deals have fallen by 59 compared to February. That's a 47% drop in sales activity. Last month they were up 51, so March has actually been slower than January so far! Active listings fell by 47 units after rising in January and February. This probably reflects the hot pace of February, but won't continue with the current level of sales activity. The ratio of sales to number of active listings fell from 9% last month to 5%. Bremerton, Silverdale, and some areas of South Kitsap remained fairly active, while activity in North Kitsap and Bainbridge declined more. STI's were up in only one area – Finn Hill rose from 2 to 4. While there is nothing to prevent an end of month flurry from bringing back February's level of activity, we currently see last month as a spike on the chart.
March’s APR is 6.353% on a 30-Year and 6.126% on a 15-Year, both Conforming. February’s APR was 6.353% on a 30-Year and 6.252% on a 15-Year, both Conforming. The 15 year rate is down slightly and the 30 rate is holding steady. To check the daily rate you can contact your lender or preview web sites such as this one - http://www.wellsfargo.com/mortgage/rates.
We have two big changes in our web site to announce. The new Map Search feature lets you scan the Kitsap map and double click to zoom in to see more listings. You can filter the property type above the map and can see full details about any listing by clicking on it. Also we have a new search for Sold Properties. If you are skillful you can select comparable properties to do your own market analysis. There are links to both at http://www.bprowse.com.
Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS
