Sunday, December 30, 2007
Kitsap Real Estate Local Markets in November 2007
Much news has been made about the strength of the Seattle housing market compared to most other large metropolitan markets in the U.S. While our strong local economy and desirable quality of life may have some impact, the blog Calculated Risk showed a graphic comparing the Case-Shiller index for the three cities still showing price gains for the year (Seattle, Portland, and Charlotte, NC) compared to the composite index of the 10 largest markets. It’s apparent that the 10 city composite prices started accelerating well ahead of the Seattle market, which didn’t shift up to the unsustainable pace until the start of 2004. For this reason our market, though currently overpriced and starting to fall, has had some breathing room compared to most of the other markets used in calculating the composite index.
We have published this article monthly for most of the past year to explore some of the significant variations in the Kitsap Real Estate market. Overall, inventory turnover has continued to decline (takes longer to sell the existing inventory). Listing inventory continues to fall as sellers are taking their properties off the market for the Holidays. Median prices fell about half a percent in November, but remain up 7% compared to a year ago. We try to breakout the new construction sales from the resale market in Poulsbo to give a more accurate presentation of conditions there. A review of the year’s progress is fitting. Below are some graphs of the market fluctuations of total listings, number of closed sales, and median sales price using each individual month’s data for various areas. The more general area descriptions below cite the more consistent year-to-date numbers.
Total listings on the market by month for various Kitsap communities
Number of Closed Sales each month for various Kitsap communities
Variations in Median Price Month by Month for Closed Sales in various Kitsap communities
Bainbridge Island Real Estate
Homes on Bainbridge Island were selling for a median price of about $680,000 at the end of November, up about 5% from a year ago. Kitsap County median prices were up about 7% over the past year. The YTD number of Bainbridge closed sales is down 4% from a year ago, and the YTD number of pending sales is down 3%. The Bainbridge market activity has been considerably slower in the 4th quarter after being up for most of the year compared to 2006. The number of closed sales is down 17% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings on Bainbridge (222) is up 16% from a year ago. The Bainbridge listing inventory is falling as homeowners take their homes off the market until next year. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 13 months, an improvement from the 24 months reported last month, but still very slow. Bainbridge Island is a strong buyers market.
Bremerton Real Estate
Homes in Bremerton were selling for a median price of about $214,750 at the end of November, up about 7% from a year ago but down over $1000 from last month. Kitsap County median prices were up 7% over the past year. The YTD number of closed sales is down 26% from a year ago, and the YTD number of pending sales is down 24%. The number of active listings (260) is up 47% from a year ago. The listing inventory is falling now as homeowners take their properties off the market for the Holidays. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 8.1 months. Bremerton is a buyers market.
North Kitsap Real Estate
Using the example of Kingston - the largest housing market in North Kitsap - homes were selling for a median price of about $350,000 at the end of November, up about 4.5% from a year ago but down $15,000 from last month. Fluctuations occur because of the relatively small number of sales. Kitsap County median prices were up 7% over the past year. The YTD number of closed sales is down 17% from a year ago, and the YTD number of pending sales is down 11%. The number of closed sales is down 17% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings in Kingston (86) is up 28% from a year ago, and the inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 14 months.
Poulsbo Real Estate
Homes in Poulsbo were selling for a median price of about $354,000 at the end of November, up about 1.2% from a year ago. Kitsap County median prices were up 7% over the past year. The number of closed sales YTD has increased 11% compared to last year, and the number of YTD pending sales has increased 32%, though a large portion of that increase is from presales of one moderately priced new construction development - homes that never appeared as active listings. The Poulsbo listing inventory (129) has risen by 13% compared to a year ago, a number that is continuing to rise after being lower than last year’s inventory for much of this year. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 6.45 months. Calculating inventory turnover in this manner is artificially low since a number of the new construction homes closing did not show as active listings. Of 50 current pending sales, 42 are new construction. Of 72 non-new construction active listings in Poulsbo, only 4 closed last month, making the inventory turnover rate 18 months!
Silverdale Real Estate
Homes in Silverdale were selling for a median price of about $318,500 at the end of November, down less than 1% from a year ago ($320,000). The number of YTD closed sales was down 1.4% from a year ago, compared to a drop in closed sales of 17% for the County as a whole. The number of pending sales YTD is up 1.7% from a year ago. The number of active listings in Silverdale (124) is up 33% compared to a year ago. This inventory is now falling as homeowners are taking their properties off the market for the Holidays. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 10 months.
Statistics not compiled or published by NWMLS
