The economy in the last month of spring has been pretty volatile, with several factors working against each other and no one able to pick the winners and losers. The latest Pacific Northwest report from economist William Conerly at Conerly Consulting shows low to moderate gains in GDP, weak improvements in employment, a steady rise in discretionary spending, strong gains in industrial sales, and improved corporate profits. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, speaking before the House Budget Committee last week, said technically we’ll be in recovery, but with near double digit unemployment there will still be a lot of financial stress. He also reminded the committee that the US Budget is on a path of unsustainable debt, while at the same time not giving Representatives cover by suggesting spending cuts or tax increases that might make things better.
The Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard released its 2010 State of the Nation’s Housing Report. The report analyzes the impact of high unemployment, reduction in median income since 2000, slowing growth in the number of households, rising numbers of minorities in younger generations, falling home prices, etc., on the national real estate market. It spans a number of topics. With falling prices, total home equity has returned to the 1985 level, back when there were far fewer homes. Total mortgage debt stands at 163% of total home equity - a record. Home prices have fallen a greater percentage at the low end then at the high end. The percentage of minority homeowners in distress far exceeds the number of white homeowners in distress, regardless of income level. Despite the large number of distressed properties, likelihood of stagnant sales prices for several years, more stringent lending standards, and high government debt, and even with much reduced immigration, there will be ample household generation to provide a robust housing market in future years. It’s just getting through the next few years that will most likely be painful.
May’s nationwide new construction single family starts fell 17.2% from April. Similarly, permits issued in May fell 9.9%. As predicted, residential construction doesn’t appear to be adding many jobs to the recovery. Builders are returning to smaller, less expensive, more energy efficient home designs. Changes in homebuilding practices might well effect builder’s return to profitability and reignite construction hiring. There must be some upside surprises developing amid all this gloomy news.
Each month we publish a snapshot of several local markets to show variations in our larger Kitsap County real estate market. May's inventory of homes for sale (1846) rose 5% from April and is 4% greater than a year ago. This rise in inventory did not occur last year and may indicate that some sellers who have been waiting to sell are now coming back into the market. The County has a listing inventory turnover rate of about 7.3 months, the same as in April. Since May pending sales have fallen 45%, it looks like turnover will slow in coming months. Inventory turnover varies greatly by price, with some higher price ranges having a turnover greater than 40 months. April's median price ($243,498) rose about 6% compared to April and was about 1% higher than a year ago. The number of pending sales in May was down 32% compared to a year ago, and regional pending sales fell in several areas. The links to regional market trends below will show both tables and graphs that further enhance the data reported below. See Kitsap County graphs at http://www.bprowse.com/kitsap_market_trends.
Bainbridge Island Real Estate
Bainbridge Island residential properties were selling for a May median price of $457,500, about 18% lower than in April. The more stable three month moving average of closed sale price fell 12% from last month to $511,333 and is 19% lower than it was a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 3% higher than it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average for Bainbridge Island's number of closed sales is 63% higher than a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 25% Countywide from a year ago. The 3 month moving average number of Bainbridge pending sales in May rose 105% from a year ago. The number of active listings on Bainbridge (210) is down 9% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 6.9 months, better than last month and much better than a year ago. Bainbridge Island is a buyer’s market.
See tables and graphs and tables at http://www.bprowse.com/bainbridge_island_market
Bremerton Real Estate
Statistics are for the Bremerton downtown core and west to Kitsap Lake. The market for other parts of Bremerton and its suburbs should be similar. Bremerton homes were selling for a month end median price of $169,898 at the end of May, about 3% less than a year ago and about the same as last month. The more stable 3 month moving average median price was 7% higher than a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 3% higher than it was a year ago. Bremerton's 3 month moving average for number of closed sales is 56% higher than a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 25% Countywide from a year ago. The 3 month moving average number of Bremerton pending sales is up 13% from last year. Recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of Bremerton active listings (168) is 3% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total Bremerton homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 5.6 months (a small improvement from the 6.1 month turnover last month and better than the 10.8 month turnover a year ago). The Bremerton market is probably still a buyer’s market.
See tables and graphs and tables at http://bprowse.com/bremerton_market
North Kitsap Real Estate
Statistics here are for Kingston, the largest housing market in North Kitsap. Activity in Kingston should be representative of the other areas in North Kitsap. Kingston homes were selling for a month end median price of about $312,715 at the end of May, 4% lower than a year ago. The more stable 3 month moving average of closed sale prices is down 32% compared to a year ago - this has been affected by the very low median price of last month. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 3% higher than it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average number of Kingston closed sales rose 350% from a year ago, while the number of pending sales is up 75% from a year ago. Recall again that our current pending sales include pending short sales that may not close. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 25% Countywide from a year ago. The number of active listings in Kingston (77) is up 24% from a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 7.7 months (worse than the 6.4 month turnover reported last month, but much better than a year ago). Kingston is still a buyer's market.
See tables and graphs and tables at http://bprowse.com/north_kitsap_market
Poulsbo Real Estate
These statistics are for Poulsbo, including the downtown core, from the head of Liberty Bay southeast to Ne-Si-Ka Bay, and parts north to Sawdust Hill Rd. Other parts of Poulsbo and its suburbs should have similar trends. The May median sales price for Poulsbo was $290,087, down about 18% from a year ago. The more stable three month moving average closed sale price was $307,362, about 6% lower than a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 3% higher than it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average number of closed sales in Poulsbo rose 56% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 25% Countywide from a year ago. Poulsbo’s 3 month moving average of pending sales fell 18% from a year ago. Recall this number includes pending short sales and new construction that may not close soon. The Poulsbo listing inventory (103) is 15% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 5.7 months, improved from the 8.2 months reported last month. Poulsbo is still a buyer’s market.
See tables and graphs and tables at http://bprowse.com/poulsbo_market
Silverdale Real Estate
Homes in Silverdale were selling for a May median price of about $245,000, 12% lower than a year ago. Silverdale's more stable 3 month moving average median closed sale price was $266,333, about 1% lower than a year ago. The Kitsap County 3 month moving average median price is 3% higher than it was a year ago. The 3 month moving average for Silverdale's number of closed sales was up 17% from a year ago. The 3 month moving average of closed sales is up 25% Countywide from a year ago. The number of Silverdale pending sales in May is up 5% from a year ago, but recall this number includes pending short sales that may not close. The number of active listings in Silverdale (98) is 14% lower than a year ago. The inventory turnover (total homes on the market divided by number sold last month) is 7 months, worse than the 5.9 month turnover reported last month. Silverdale is still a buyer's market.
See tables and graphs and tables at http://bprowse.com/silverdale_market
